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Coherence Engine - Manthan continuous-learning plan

Coherence Engine - Manthan continuous-learning plan. Covers 0. Decision in one sentence; 1. Evidence boundary; 1.1 Pinned sources inspected; 1.2 Fresh live controls.

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Coherence Engine - Manthan continuous-learning plan

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Historical integration study / implementation plan

Summary

Coherence Engine - Manthan continuous-learning plan. Covers 0. Decision in one sentence; 1. Evidence boundary; 1.1 Pinned sources inspected; 1.2 Fresh live controls.

Topics
  • AI learning and workflows
  • 0. Decision in one sentence
  • 1. Evidence boundary
  • 1.1 Pinned sources inspected
Theme

AI learning and workflows

Priority

core

Related ids
  • manthan-related-conduir-evolution-docs-findings-2026-08-13-manthan-capability-scan
  • manthan-related-conduir-evolution-delivery-manthan-swarm-learning-audit
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  • Historical record: current deployment, task completion and test status must not be inferred from this date-bound document.
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Coherence Engine - Manthan continuous-learning plan

Date: 2026-08-26

Status: FINAL_REVIEW_CANDIDATE_WITH_DEGRADED_CROSS_FAMILY_GATE - no adoption, work-assignment,
deployment, ticket-mutation or effect authority

Scope: Manthan-related activity needed to make Manthan a bounded exploration and evaluation
organ of the Coherence Learning Spine

Parent design: delivery/COHERENCE-LEARNING-SPINE-BASE-DESIGN-2026-08-24.md

Target experience: https://dev.conduir.ai/coherence-engine/wip on this host. Both the normal
hostname path and a forced local-service TLS/SNI path redirect unauthenticated requests to Microsoft
sign-in. Direct inspection of the deployed webchat artifact confirmed the Coherence WIP content;
the authenticated end-user journey was not exercised.

0. Decision in one sentence

Use Manthan as the option refinery and contained comparative-evaluation lane for Coherence - not
as the memory system, not as the causal evidence ledger, not as the adoption authority and not as a
direct actuator.

The next useful limit is not to connect more feeds. It is to prove this exact loop:

exact Coherence execution + measured outcome
  -> bounded hypothesis with incumbent/candidate digests
  -> contained Manthan trial with frozen evaluator and denominator
  -> signed/immutable result receipt, including NO_WINNER and degraded results
  -> GraduationCandidateV0 -> governed MoveProposalV0
  -> exact-subject review + independent evidence certification
  -> independent Operations decision + separate exact-subject effect grant
  -> packaged/published/deployed fresh Coherence successor and Role Fabric canary
  -> KEEP / REVERT / UNKNOWN
  -> only evaluated residue becomes Cortex-recallable learning

The central finding is therefore:

Manthan already supplies useful churn, lineage, quality-diversity, temporal holdout and selection
primitives. What it does not supply is the exact, tenant-scoped, causal and replay-safe bridge from
a Coherence execution to a controlled experiment and back to a measured successor. That bridge is
the Manthan-focused work. Building another generic learner or writing Manthan winners straight to
Cortex would preserve the current fragmentation.

1. Evidence boundary

1.1 Pinned sources inspected

SourcePin or stateWhat it provesLimitation
Conduir Evolution landing zone3c9716f0e7c83bb1e1ed70484d9405c822cb7a7d plus the explicitly dirty 2026-08-24/26 WIPcurrent local Coherence, Cortex and learning-spine workthe WIP is not committed or adopted; the landing-zone branch is materially behind its origin/main
Prior Temporal/Cortex ultra-review27acb256662d6ca96682010296cdcf3941c9799dexact static source findings plus recorded 2026-08-26 runtime evidenceseveral summary sections still contain superseded review-provenance wording; use the findings register and raw records for panel state
Manthan current main3a94084024a3434cef331fecac91c2c3b43f0313current source for read-route bounding, QD, selection and storage shapecurrent local runtime is down, so source presence is not deployment or effectiveness evidence
Manthan focused test snapshot7e8955b20e0f87cbd9d4f2486ad8f86fa4bf8d3380 focused tests passed across API selection/feed/diversity, runtime selection, substrate materialisation/provenance and bridge translationpredecessor of current main; current main adds route/DB bounding but was not the test pin for the 80-test run
Manthan critical-review record27438ece867841222d4e733ff567389764b765da, patch SHA-256 a67f0d86049d2d6dbde8b447846aa793c59911e66a7ec18a21739314c682de9ahistorical live incident evidence and a known-issues proposalreview branch diverges from current main; the reviewed code and live deployed digest were not bound together
Maestro mainc502a0c51ce5b73eaa528e5d2d03a510dc5f2bc6MLflow experiment API and Symposium A/B donor mechanismsgeneric experiment supply, not the Coherence-Manthan causal join
Maestro clean-room branch16699a43eea90b245765c8c98b8cbd5f63633c61preserved parallel experiment implementationssame boundary as Maestro main for this scope
Separate conduir-clean-roomlocal presence verified at ../conduir-clean-room/, branch conduir-platform, HEAD 50e4325faeea6eeae149d4e5a203de0cf5b31db1proves that the required sibling source is available for a follow-on auditits contents were not audited for this plan's D-34 cycle; no broad capability-completeness claim is allowed

This plan is a gap-and-delivery proposal, not a statement that the composed capability is complete.
The present-but-unaudited third source and the unexercised authenticated end-user journey remain
explicit evidence limits rather than guessed inputs.

1.2 Fresh live controls

The low-rate control ran before any availability statement:

The current claim is source available, local service unavailable. The 2026-08-13 report of a
partially running but unready stack is historical and must not be used as today's runtime state.

The Coherence WIP page is a separate control. The deployed webchat image at revision
359563067e11fc3f555f3f7766d1f42b49aba982 rewrites /coherence-engine/wip to the internally named
role-fabric-wip.html; the deployed file and source pin share SHA-256
6f8aa5b26738443c42131db5b79a9ecdfd385a7c6be72b1cc2472d07ceef7409. Its static Coherence content
is present. Its live read projection returns 503 not_configured because the webchat deployment has
no ROLE_FABRIC_URL; that failure means current run status is unavailable, not that the static page
or the underlying workflow is absent.

1.3 Five-dimension supply audit

DimensionDirect evidenceHonest status for this plan
ProtocolsConduir has ExperimentRequestV0, ExperimentFindingV0, ExperimentResultV0, GraduationCandidateV0, SideLaneEnvelopeV0 and ObjectiveScoreV1 under contracts/schemas/. Current Symposium consumers include experiment_intake.py, experiment_actuation_guard.py, graduation_candidate_builder.py and graduation_field_map.py; the schema provenance note that says no consumer exists is stale. Manthan's product model contains agent, artefact, lineage and elite records, not these workflow experiment contracts (../manthan/services/substrate/src/manthan_substrate/models.py:56-180 at the Manthan pin).live contract/consumer supply exists in Conduir; ownership is not Manthan; the missing unit is the tenant-safe Manthan adapter and governed return join, not generic experiment intake/graduation
Runtime dispatchManthan implements read-side /elites, /feed, /diversity, /ab/temporal and provisional /gate/selection (../manthan/services/api/src/manthan_api/main.py:369-729).strong advisory/query supply; no Coherence experiment intake, execution or result callback
Emitted eventsManthan architecture names artefact-created/linked NATS subjects, but its own integration review records that the runtime polls HTTP. The Maestro bridge uses core subscription plus an in-memory queue and can drop on overflow (../manthan/services/maestro-bridge/src/manthan_maestro_bridge/main.py:96-125 at the pin).no durable, acknowledged Manthan experiment event path
UI surfacesManthan has a viewer for the commune and Conduir has a Coherence WIP experience, but no reviewed surface binds an exact Coherence candidate to a Manthan trial, decision and canary lineage.visual donor supply only; no experiment control-room path proven
TestsFocused Manthan pure/function tests cover selection, feed, diversity, materialisation and bridge translation. The selection gate's pure function has tests, but the route has no direct test in test_selection_gate.py; explorers have no test package. Current main adds bounded-failure tests for elites/diversity/herald.useful unit evidence; no same-digest end-to-end trial, restart/replay, isolation or effectiveness proof

2. What Manthan is good for

2.1 Candidate discovery and option diversity

Manthan's strongest current contribution is to stop the learning system collapsing to one familiar
answer:

lineage preserve alternative and dissenting paths;

provenance; and

These are valuable candidate-supply and search-prior mechanisms. They do not prove that a
candidate improves a Coherence workflow.

2.2 Falsifiable comparative evaluation

/ab/temporal ranks with pre-cutoff information and grades with later engagement. The provisional
/gate/selection pins a 10 percent relative-lift floor, minimum cohort of 30 and minimum 20 graded
edges; it reports INSUFFICIENT_DATA rather than forcing a verdict. Those are good fail-closed
behaviours.

The same implementation states its ceiling: the verdict is a top-k point estimate with no confidence
interval, and its median cutoff is recency-stratified. It requires randomized assignment and a
bootstrap confidence interval before it can certify. Future engagement is also a proxy for an idea
being built upon; it is not the Coherence mission outcome, evidence completeness, downstream escape
rate or effect-safety result.

2.3 Adversarial exploration, not governance

The correct use of Manthan is to generate and challenge bounded hypotheses. Manthan may say:

It may not say:

3. Bounded candidate gaps to re-audit and close

These are evidence-backed gaps in the inspected sources, not D-34-complete “exact gaps.” The separate
conduir-clean-room repository is present but was not audited for this plan, so each item must be
re-audited across all three required sources before it can be admitted as net-new capability work.

G-MAN-01 - runtime and operational admission

Manthan is not available on the current host. The latest main bounds failure duration and database
pool use, but it does not remove the confirmed 1536-dimensional vector materialisation on the
lightweight lineage path. The unmerged tenant-header fix and the failed sequential sensing unit must
also be reconciled against current main rather than merged by assumption.

Required outcome: a pinned deployed Manthan revision passes liveness, readiness and real data-path
canaries for generation, ingest, materialisation, feed, diversity, trial and result retrieval. An
availability badge cannot substitute for these paths.

G-MAN-02 - experiment identity and tenant membrane

The current Manthan store has no tenant/workspace partition, Coherence run/admission identity,
incumbent/candidate digest, evaluator identity, metric-set digest, evidence denominator or decision
grant. Provenance is inferred from writer-controlled tags and optional author identity.

Required outcome: every Coherence trial is addressed by immutable, tenant-scoped identities, and
all writes, queries, caches, uniqueness constraints and lineage edges enforce the same scope. A
missing or conflicting scope fails closed.

G-MAN-03 - durable ingress and replay

The current bridge uses core NATS subscription, a bounded process-memory queue, best-effort posts and
process-memory promotion deduplication. It can lose offline/overflow events and repeat promotions
after restart.

Required outcome: the originating record and durable outbox row co-commit in one transaction;
the consumer acks only after transactional persist; retries, quarantine, replay cursor and scoped
idempotency survive crashes at every producer/publish/consumer/ack boundary. Reconciliation proves
exact set equality after subtracting an explicitly enumerated allowed-extra set, with no unexpected
same-scope record and no cross-tenant collision. Trial lifecycle transitions use an expected-version
CAS; the exact START/STOP/terminal vocabulary remains a contract decision rather than an inferred
state machine.

G-MAN-04 - Coherence-specific experimental semantics

Sending a Coherence outcome through the existing bridge marks it via-maestro, while Manthan's gate
defaults to runtime provenance. More importantly, arbitrary outcome prose loses exact incumbent,
candidate, plan, admission, role/fence, evaluator and denominator identity.

Required outcome: a distinct coherence-trial cohort and an explicit adapter from service-neutral
experiment contracts to Manthan storage. The adapter retains complete structured identity; a text
rendering is a projection only.

G-MAN-05 - real evaluation and no-winner semantics

The present gate measures Manthan's own selection brain with held-out future engagement. It does not
compare two exact Coherence workflow versions on the same workload and evaluator.

Required outcome: paired or randomized incumbent/candidate evaluation with frozen workload,
evaluator, metrics and hard invariant floors; confidence/uncertainty; confounder reporting; and
PASS, FAIL, NO_WINNER, INSUFFICIENT_DATA, DEGRADED and CONTAINMENT_BREACH outcomes.

G-MAN-06 - decision, application and readback separation

A statistical winner is not an adoption decision, and an adoption decision is not proof the exact
successor was delivered or effective.

Required outcome: separate signed result, GraduationCandidateV0, governed MoveProposalV0,
exact-subject review, independent evidence certification, Operations decision, exact-subject effect
grant, successor materialisation, package, publish, deploy, application/readback, canary and
KEEP/REVERT/UNKNOWN records. Manthan returns evidence; the authorized decision actor decides;
Coherence compiles; Role Fabric/Temporal executes only under current admission, lease/fence and effect
authority; Cortex indexes only the evaluated residue allowed by policy. Terminal decisions use an
expected-version CAS and rollback increments a generation used by recall and later admission.

These are acceptance controls proposed by this plan. They do not inherit authority from
EXECUTION-REVIEW-CONTROL-PLANE.v0.md or the candidate team package while either remains unadopted;
each live decision/effect record must cite the then-current independently adopted governing source.

G-MAN-07 - learning consumer and memory closure

Yesterday's review showed the estate has several stores that are individually populated but are not
read before a later decision. Cortex has persistent episodic supply but almost no effective
crystallisation, and Swarm-to-Cortex capture is default-off.

Required outcome: name the exact later consumer for every Manthan-produced record. A promoted
learning must be retrieved under stable tenant/repository identity and proven present in the next
Coherence candidate or agent-context decision. Raw candidates, failures and dissent remain evidence,
not behavioural instructions.

4. Target composition and authority

ConcernAuthorityManthan responsibilityExplicit prohibition
active work, role, lease and fenceRole Fabricaccept immutable references in a trialno work mutation
compiled incumbent and successorCoherence compilerevaluate exact referenced digestsno in-place workflow edit
admission and policy identityCoherence admissionretain and return the exact referenceno effect grant
candidate mutation/proposalEvolution or normal delivery workflowaccept bounded candidate materialno direct application
exploration and comparisonManthangenerate options, preserve diversity, execute contained trials, return result receiptsno automatic promotion
canonical causal learning ledgerCoherence Learning Spinesupply linked domain receiptsno competing all-owning ledger
memory and recallCortexindex policy-allowed evaluated residue and return scoped recallno evaluator or authority role
operating adoptionauthorized Operations actorreceive decision referenceno inference of authority from authentication
orchestration durabilityTemporal/NATSexpose resumable activity and transport receiptsno work/decision/learning truth
lineage viewGrafosaexpose projection-friendly linksno write authority

5. Delivery plan

M0 - recover and admit Manthan as a dependency

Purpose: turn source supply into a proven, current service without yet connecting it to Coherence.

Activities:

1. Rebase the historical critical findings onto current Manthan main and pin the exact source,
image, compose manifest and configuration digest.
2. Bind M0 to a private, single-scope recovery environment. Require authentication on every route,
a non-empty admin token that fails closed when absent, and network-isolation proof before service
admission; do not expose or back up mixed-tenant production content in M0.
3. Repair the light lineage query with explicit columns plus a SQL has_embedding scalar; do not
defer the vector and then access it lazily.
4. Reconcile the still-open gateway tenant-header fix with current main and validate it against the
actual gateway contract.
5. Split sensing, harvest, Cortex projection and external sensors into independently observable,
retryable stages. One failed stage must not silently skip later stages.
6. Bring services/explorers/ and services/maestro-bridge/ into lint, tests and CI.
7. Repair the nightly Prometheus assertion. Restore a backup into a clean isolated instance, compare
exact record/key/digest sets, and rerun the served-path canary against the restored instance.
8. Pre-register a production-shape corpus digest, distribution/concurrency profile, percentile
latency/resource bounds and scale-negative cases before observing route results.
9. Add product-output signals: last generated, ingested, materialised, served, trialled and exported
record; queue lag; dropped/retried/dead-letter counts; and no-output alert.
10. Run a fresh SOURCE -> BUILT -> DEPLOYED -> EFFECTIVE canary against the exact deployed digest.

Exit evidence:

accepted;

bounds on the pinned corpus and fail the declared scale negatives;

manufacturing a successful loop; and

key and digest sets and serves the canary successfully.

M1 - reconcile contracts and build the Coherence-Manthan adapter

Purpose: create a typed, no-effect bridge before adding a live learning loop.

Activities:

1. Reconcile the shipped Conduir experiment contracts and current Symposium consumers with the
Learning Spine's planned WorkflowExperimentV1 and ExperimentResultV1. Reuse the existing
intake, actuation-guard, graduation-candidate and MoveProposal mapping supply; do not duplicate it
or call it current Manthan ownership.
2. Require, at minimum:
- tenant, repository/project, actor/grant and sensitivity scope;
- hypothesis and falsification condition;
- incumbent and candidate artifact/content digests;
- Coherence blueprint, plan, admission, profile, catalogue/provider/tool snapshots;
- work/run/node/attempt, role/incarnation and fence identities;
- frozen workload/corpus, evaluator and metric-set digests;
- declared denominator and evidence references;
- budget, current lease/fence epoch, expiry, containment, rollback generation and references; and
- explicit no-winner/degraded states.
3. Add a coherence-trial provenance class that cannot collide with runtime, Maestro, explorer or
seed traffic.
4. Implement a no-effect adapter that writes immutable candidate/trial records and reads immutable
result receipts. It must not expose an apply operation or write SHADOW records into any globally
eligible Manthan signal feed.
5. Define canonical signed bytes, trusted issuer/key ID, algorithm, rotation/revocation policy and
negative verification for every result receipt.
6. Co-commit the originating record and outbox row in one transaction. Use ack-after-persist, replay,
dead letter, exact-set reconciliation and expected-version trial/decision transitions.
7. Add conformance, parity, tenant/repository-negative, unexpected-extra-event, duplicate,
out-of-order transition, producer/publish/consumer/ack crash-window, stale-digest,
altered-denominator, expired-authority and containment tests.

Exit evidence:

reconciliation rejects unaccounted-for durable extras;

and missing denominators are rejected;

M2 - shadow discovery loop

Purpose: prove Manthan adds useful option diversity without changing production behaviour.

Activities:

1. Start from an E0 Learning Spine observation/candidate set, not raw un-attributed telemetry.
2. Project bounded candidates into the coherence-trial lineage space.
3. Use lineage, contradiction, MAP-Elites and diversity to generate or select alternative
hypotheses.
4. Compare Manthan suggestions with a simple declared baseline such as recency or existing
candidate-factory ordering.
5. Keep the path SHADOW: record what would have been selected but do not alter the active plan,
agent context, Role Fabric work or Cortex validated-learning tier. SHADOW records are ineligible
for /signal/feed, runtime generation, promotion and any other non-shadow selector.
6. Measure novelty, duplicate reduction, evaluator acceptance, hard-floor failures, cost and time.
7. Predeclare an accepted-novelty or cost-adjusted non-inferiority floor against the baseline; a
reproducible but useless/noisy ranking does not close M2.

Exit evidence:

and remains open; and

M3 - contained Coherence workflow trial

Purpose: make Manthan useful to the first real workflow-successor evaluation while preserving
the existing authority split.

Activities:

1. Materialise one immutable workflow successor from an independently accepted learning hypothesis.
2. Re-resolve current Coherence admission, role incarnation, lease/fence epoch and expiry immediately
before compilation and again before each contained or canary launch.
3. Compile incumbent and successor through Coherence using frozen snapshots.
4. Randomize assignment under a predeclared blocked/crossover design with provider/tool parity,
exchangeability checks, sample-size/power floor and confounder reporting. The randomized design
itself requires independent validity review before M3 may certify a result. Deterministic pairing
is not certification unless an independently reviewed design proves equivalent validity.
5. Execute in a no-effect or explicitly sandboxed Role Fabric lane.
6. Measure end-to-end quality, evidence completeness, queue time, execution time, rework, cost,
downstream escape and hard security/governance floors.
7. Have Manthan return the signed comparative result receipt; do not return a promotion command.
8. Convert an eligible result through GraduationCandidateV0 -> MoveProposalV0, then require
exact-subject correctness review and independent evidence certification.
9. Present the certified proposal, evidence and dissent to the authorized Operations decision inbox;
persist the decision with an expected-version CAS and a single terminal transition.
10. If adopted, require a separate fresh exact-subject effect grant, PACKAGE/PUBLISH/DEPLOY receipts,
current-authority revalidation, a fresh canary and application/readback before KEEP, REVERT or
UNKNOWN. If rejected, failed, no-winner or insufficient-data, close through a non-adoption branch
without inventing successor/canary evidence.
11. On rollback, advance a monotonic application/recall generation so concurrent or later recall and
admission reject pre-rollback guidance rather than relying on cache invalidation alone.
12. Index only the policy-allowed evaluated learning into Cortex and prove the next decision path
retrieves the same record under stable scope identity.

Exit evidence:

and executable NO_WINNER/INSUFFICIENT_DATA assertions;

application/readback receipts;

stale concurrent repopulation;

The first honest claim after M3 is:

One exact Coherence workflow successor was comparatively evaluated through a contained Manthan
trial, explicitly decided, delivered to a fresh canary, measured and kept, reverted or left
unknown with complete lineage.

It is not yet “continuous learning.”

M4 - repeated governed learning cadence

Purpose: prove repeated compounding without turning repetition into uncontrolled autonomy.

Activities:

1. Schedule bounded observation/candidate/trial windows through Temporal while keeping ledger and
decision truth in their authorities.
2. Define immutable window identity, selection bounds, watermark, allowed lateness, finalization,
overlap, missed-window catch-up and duplicate-window suppression before scheduling.
3. Register the full path in the Learning Spine wiring registry with mode, producer, store,
consumer, decision, freshness, lag, replay cursor, rollback and executable canary.
4. Add oscillation, delayed-regression, distribution-shift and winner's-curse detection.
5. Calibrate Manthan's proxy measures against actual Coherence outcomes; retire measures that do not
predict value.
6. Permit bounded policy automation only for explicitly granted low-risk scopes after repeated
evidence. Keep evaluator, governance and protected-path floors immutable to this loop.
7. Surface loop health and decisions on the Coherence WIP page only from current runtime evidence.

Exit evidence:

Temporal scheduler-dispatch receipt rather than a manual launch;

alarm drills; and

Only after M4 may a bounded statement such as “selected Coherence workflow behaviour continuously
improves under the declared policy” be evaluated for adoption.

6. Role-neutral work packets

These packets describe work; they do not assign people, bind roles or grant effects.

PacketDeliverableDependenciesProof
CE-MAN-01current-main incident reconciliation and exact private recovery manifestnonesource/build/deploy digest chain, fail-closed AuthN/admin-token/network negatives and negative availability canary
CE-MAN-02lineage light/heavy query split and pinned production-shape performance testCE-MAN-01explicit-column query, no vector materialisation on light path, predeclared percentile/resource bounds and scale negatives
CE-MAN-03independently observable sensing/harvest/export stagesCE-MAN-01one-stage failure does not suppress the others; per-stage durable status
CE-MAN-04explorers/bridge CI and product-output alarmsCE-MAN-03real tests, no soft gate, no-output alarm turns red
CE-MAN-05reconcile shipped service-neutral experiment contracts and consumersE0 contract decisionsreuse map, parity and negative identity/denominator/authority cases
CE-MAN-06tenant/repository-scoped coherence-trial storage and lineageCE-MAN-05; constitutional S0 ActorContext/OutcomeEvent and S1 isolation closed, or an explicit logged Gestation exceptionstorage-strategy proof; for shared tables, FORCE RLS, non-owner NOBYPASSRLS role, missing-scope deny and pooled-connection reset; query/cache/unique-key isolation suite in every strategy
CE-MAN-07durable Coherence-Manthan ingress/signed-result adapterCE-MAN-05, CE-MAN-06atomic source/outbox crash matrix, restart/replay/DLQ, exact-set reconciliation, signature and version-transition negatives
CE-MAN-08shadow discovery comparison with feed exclusionCE-MAN-07; same S0/S1 or Gestation gatefrozen cohort, held-out evaluation, accepted-novelty/non-inferiority threshold, no-effect and no-global-feed proof
CE-MAN-09paired workflow-successor trialCE-MAN-08, E1 readinessexact arms, independent evaluation, result receipt
CE-MAN-10governed graduation, review/certification, decision, effect grant, release, canary and rollback/readback joinCE-MAN-09GraduationCandidateV0 -> MoveProposalV0, decision CAS, exact-subject review/certification, separate effect grant, PACKAGE/PUBLISH/DEPLOY, applied digest, KEEP/REVERT/UNKNOWN or non-adoption terminal
CE-MAN-11Cortex promoted-learning projection and next-decision recallCE-MAN-10stable scope, filtered bundle, fresh consumer proof
CE-MAN-12Temporal cadence, wiring registry and Operations/Coherence WIP projectionCE-MAN-07 onwardimmutable windows/watermarks, scheduler receipts, restart/catch-up/duplicate suppression, path-mode truth, lag/broken-link alarms, source-backed UI

7. Sabotage and falsification matrix

SabotageRequired result
Manthan is down at request timerequest remains durably owed/failed; no trial or learning claim
candidate digest changes after requestreject before execution
missing tenant, run, admission, evaluator or denominatorfail closed
same event is replayedone durable record and one result effect
same event ID appears under another tenantreject/quarantine; never cross-deduplicate
an unexpected same-scope event exists in durable storageexact-set reconciliation fails unless the event is in the predeclared allowed-extra set
producer crashes between source and outbox writesone transaction commits both or neither; accepted work cannot vanish
a late lifecycle or terminal decision arrives after a newer versionexpected-version transition rejects/quarantines it; no reopening or conflicting terminal state
queue fills or consumer restartsdurable backlog/retry/DLQ; no silent drop
treatment sees post-cutoff or held-out outcomesinvalidate the trial
candidate author is sole evaluatorreject or mark conflicted and require independent evaluation
point estimate is positive but uncertainty crosses the floorNO_WINNER or INSUFFICIENT_DATA
assignment balance, power or provider/tool parity failsINSUFFICIENT_DATA; no adoption path
proxy fitness rises while mission quality or a hard floor fallsFAIL/REVERT
Manthan result says PASS but no authorized decision existsno successor materialisation
result signature is absent, invalid, revoked or covers different bytesreject/quarantine; no decision input
admission, lease/fence or effect grant is expired/superseded at launchno compile/execution/canary effect
application acknowledges but readback digest differsapplication failure; no learned claim
canary improves locally but increases downstream reworkREVERT or UNKNOWN per declared policy
Cortex recalls raw candidate text as validated guidancefail bundle generation
rollback succeeds but successor remains in new runs or recallclosure failure
SHADOW lineage appears in /signal/feed or any non-shadow selectorisolation failure; invalidate M2
a scheduled cycle is only manually invoked or Temporal misses/duplicates a windowM4 remains open and the schedule alarm turns red
WIP UI says live while data path is unavailableprojection turns red and blocks the claim

8. What to reuse, adapt and reject

Reuse

Adapt

Reject

9. Decisions required before M1 can become admitted work

1. Canonical service-neutral contract naming: reconcile current experiment v0 records with the
Learning Spine v1 names.
2. Initial tenant/storage strategy for Manthan experiments: isolated schema/database versus fully
tenant-keyed shared tables with FORCE RLS, a non-owner NOBYPASSRLS runtime role,
per-transaction tenant context and pooled-connection reset proof.
3. First Coherence workflow, frozen fixture, evaluator and hard floors for M3.
4. Which trial classes may enter Manthan and what content/sensitivity is forbidden.
5. Operations grant: who may request, stop, accept, reject or revert which trial scope.
6. Retention, deletion and Cortex-promotion policy for raw trials, dissent and evaluated residue.
7. Runtime recovery owner and the source/deployment path for current Manthan main.

Read-only contract reconciliation and an isolated synthetic M0 recovery can proceed before these
decisions. Authentication, private network exposure, fail-closed admin token and admissible
content/retention rules do block M0 service admission, any mixed-scope backup and any representation
that Manthan is tenant-safe or production-active.

10. Ultra-review and swarm status

10.1 Immutable Stage-1 result

StageRan?FamiliesResult
Stage 1, isolated same-family reviewyes1, Codex27 confirmed, 1 plausible, 2 refuted
Stage 2, cross-family reviewattempted2 of 3 usable, Anthropic and OpenAI; Google timed outdegraded triage, not a verdict
Stage 3, cross-examinationnononenot run because Stage 2 health did not pass

The reviewed staged subject was:

58de3a7d83a4e97accd723c651aff0f9b8647f683c0c007b0c67afe21592a4eb, reproduced with
git diff --cached --binary --full-index --no-ext-diff -- <path> | sha256sum.

Six isolated finder perspectives raised 34 raw candidates. Zero mechanically identical candidates
were removed and four semantic duplicate pairs were merged, leaving 30 unique candidates. Thirty
separate adversarial verifiers returned 27 CONFIRMED, one PLAUSIBLE and two REFUTED. The two
refutations were the demand for a specific Cortex retraction-marker implementation and an asserted
blanket Manthan same-commit tracker/README invariant. The plausible lifecycle-ordering item remains
an unresolved contract question; this revision requires version-guarded terminal transitions without
inventing START/CANCEL vocabulary.

10.2 Cross-family gate: incomplete, not a verdict

The current review engine was fetched and run at origin/main
4d4a3a53c912dbdd0a26d948c886aa7aa83b1fcb, zero commits behind. Every accepted dry run resolved
exactly one Anthropic, OpenAI and Google seat with status=ok. No live Stage-2 run produced three
usable family contributions:

1. the first leased pooled worktree disappeared during execution and returned status=degraded, no
findings and no contribution health;
2. a dedicated retry returned usable Anthropic/OpenAI findings but the Google lane timed out;
3. a bounded retry exposed a Google sandbox permission error because evidence roots were outside the
review cwd; and
4. a common-parent retry made both evidence roots visible but the Google lane still timed out.

DeepSeek lanes were rate-limited and Grok was non-responsive during fresh probes. The two-family raw
findings repeatedly confirmed the principal corrections folded above, but they are degraded triage,
not a three-family swarm verdict. Stage 3 was not run because healthy Stage 2 is its prerequisite.
Runtime receipts remain under .swarm-artifacts/coherence-manthan-ultra-review/; they are not delivery
evidence and must not be promoted by path or process existence.

10.3 Questions for the next healthy swarm

The next healthy three-family review should try to refute these propositions against the revised,
newly pinned artifact:

1. Is “option refinery plus contained evaluator” the smallest coherent Manthan role, or does current
source prove a stronger safe role?
2. Does the plan preserve the already-decided E0 boundary and avoid making live Manthan a hidden
prerequisite?
3. Are any existing Conduir, Maestro main, Maestro clean-room or Manthan contracts/runtimes being
duplicated or assigned to the wrong authority?
4. Can a Manthan result influence production without an exact Operations decision, application
receipt and canary outcome?
5. Are tenant, identity, event-replay, containment, evaluator-separation and no-winner controls
complete enough to prevent false learning?
6. Does every write name a later decision consumer and every claim have both backward and forward
lineage?
7. Do the phase gates prove source, built, deployed and effective state without reading a proxy as
the fact?
8. What is the smallest change that would falsify or materially improve this plan?

11. Claim boundary

This plan establishes a Manthan-focused delivery sequence and review target. It does not establish:

The plan succeeds only when the evidence chain ends in a measured fresh-run result, not when the
document, schema, event, memory entry or dashboard exists.

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